# Ensemble

## Basic Points

- When modeling areas of the market, such as forecasting realized volatility (the expected percentage range over the course of a year with 68.3% confidence based on historical data), an ensemble approach will take the average from multiple models.
- An ensemble can increase the accuracy and reliability of analysis by leveraging the strengths of averages.
- In general, when we say we are using an “ensemble” what this means is that we are blending multiple models together and averaging their effects, typically without weightings.

## Expert: Understanding Ensembles

Ensembles have a way of being superior to isolated models because they can benefit from the average of well-intentioned guesswork and the models which actually hit the mark. Euan Sinclair gives an informative anecdote of the power of ensembles in *Positional Options Trading *(2020):

An aggregate forecast can be better than any of the components that make it up. This can be demonstrated with a simple example. Imagine that we ask 100 people the multiple-choice question, ‘What is the capital of Italy?’ with the possibilities being Rome, Milan, Turin, and Venice. Twenty of the group are sure about the correct answer (Rome). The remaining 80 just guess so their choices are equally divided among all the choices, which get 20 votes each. So, Rome receives 40 votes (the 20 people who knew and 20 votes from guesses) and the other cities get 20 votes each. Even though only a small proportion of the people had genuine knowledge, the signal was enough to easily swamp the noise from the guess of the guessers… This is probably the best way to apply this concept. Average over every GARCH model possible, a wide range of time scales, and a wide range of parameters. (p. 36)

A less formal way to use an ensemble would simply be to use a variety of diverse models to assess the same market situation. Levels and SpotGamma inflection points work well logically when combined symbiotically with other approaches. Therefore, looking for confluence to rank the strength of a support/resistance line is a reasonable approach.