Expected Value Expected value, if positive, means that the more often a strategy is repeated, the more likely it is to be profitable. With this principle, no strategy can be judged by a single trade. This means that many losing outcomes are good trades, and many winning outcomes are bad trades. What primarily makes a trade good is if it has positive expected value. Any option strategy by itself in isolation and only being used once should not be assumed to have positive [or negative] expected value. For example, on short options or credit spreads, higher winrates tend to have lower reward and higher risk. Think about what makes short options so dangerous: They pick up pennies (small reward) for huge risk, but they get a lot of pennies. A triangular dynamic of winrate, max loss, and max gain tend to balance each other out for neutral expected value in any option trade, which is how the BSM model (the mainstream theoretical pricing model for options) attempts to price options fairly. But if using edges, such as what SpotGamma provides in its various models and reports, and also assuming a high standard of trade in risk management, then trading can be profitable over the long run. Related articles Covered Short Call Ratio SpotGamma Implied 1-Day Move Feedback Loop DDOI (Dealer-Directional Positioning) BSM (Black-Scholes-Merton Model)